Robotic motion-planning problems, such as a UAV flying fast in a partially-known environment or a robot arm moving around cluttered objects, require finding collision-free paths quickly. Typically, this is solved by constructing a graph, where vertices represent robot configurations and edges represent potentially valid movements of the robot between theses configurations. The main computational bottlenecks are expensive edge evaluations to check for collisions. State of the art planning methods do not reason about the optimal sequence of edges to evaluate in order to find a collision free path quickly. In this paper, we do so by drawing a novel equivalence between motion planning and the Bayesian active learning paradigm of decision region determination (DRD).

Bayesian optimization usually assumes that a Bayesian prior is given. However, the strong theoretical guarantees in Bayesian optimization are often regrettably compromised in practice because of unknown parameters in the prior. In this paper, we adopt a variant of empirical Bayes and show that, by estimating the Gaussian process prior from offline data sampled from the same prior and constructing unbiased estimators of the posterior, variants of both GP-UCB and \emph{probability of improvement} achieve a near-zero regret bound, which decreases to a constant proportional to the observational noise as the number of offline data and the number of online evaluations increase. Empirically, we have verified our approach on challenging simulated robotic problems featuring task and motion planning.

Motion planning is still an open problem for many disciplines, e.g., robotics, autonomous driving, due to their need for high computational resources that hinder

This work was done when the author was with Rutgers University.

Measurement uncertainty inthesystem arisesfromvariousestimation orprediction procedures in real-world that rely on sensory information ( e.g.

The synthetic control method (SCM) estimates causal effects in panel data with a single-treated unit by constructing a counterfactual outcome as a weighted combination of untreated control units that matches the pre-treatment trajectory. In this paper, we introduce the targeted synthetic control (TSC) method, a new two-stage estimator that directly estimates the counterfactual outcome. Specifically, our TSC method (1) yields a targeted debiasing estimator, in the sense that the targeted updating refines the initial weights to produce more stable weights; and (2) ensures that the final counterfactual estimation is a convex combination of observed control outcomes to enable direct interpretation of the synthetic control weights. TSC is flexible and can be instantiated with arbitrary machine learning models. Methodologically, TSC starts from an initial set of synthetic-control weights via a one-dimensional targeted update through the weight-tilting submodel, which calibrates the weights to reduce bias of weights estimation arising from pre-treatment fit. Furthermore, TSC avoids key shortcomings of existing methods (e.g., the augmented SCM), which can produce unbounded counterfactual estimates. Across extensive synthetic and real-world experiments, TSC consistently improves estimation accuracy over state-of-the-art SCM baselines.